Brandan James McMurtrie · January 2026
2025 Market Intelligence Report
+13.9%
Annual Growth
$1,296,434
Q4 Median
+4.9%
Q4 Growth
5.8%
Stock on Market
The 2025 calendar year for Carrara (4211) was characterized by aggressive capital appreciation driven by a significant supply-demand imbalance. Over the 12-month period, the suburb saw a total value increase of 13.9%, culminating in a new median house value of $1,296,434. The most critical phase occurred in Q4, where a sharp decline in available inventory triggered the highest quarterly price jump of the year.
Tracking the month-by-month appreciation showing the clear acceleration in Q4.
Q1 (Mar)
$1.15M
Baseline
Q2 (Jun)
$1.19M
+3.2% Growth
Q3 (Sep)
$1.23M
+3.5% Growth
Q4 (Dec)
$1.30M
+4.9% Growth
| Month (2025) | Median House Value | MoM Growth |
|---|---|---|
| January | $1,138,642 | — |
| February | $1,157,906 | +1.7% ▲ |
| March (Q1) | $1,157,283 | -0.1% ▼ |
| April | $1,186,594 | +2.5% ▲ |
| May | $1,202,972 | +1.4% ▲ |
| June (Q2) | $1,194,792 | -0.7% ▼ |
| July | $1,202,454 | +0.6% ▲ |
| August | $1,223,504 | +1.8% ▲ |
| September (Q3) | $1,236,112 | +1.0% ▲ |
| October | $1,256,984 | +1.7% ▲ |
| November | $1,278,083 | +1.7% ▲ |
| December (Q4) | $1,296,434 | +1.5% ▲ |
Annual Performance Total:
+13.9%
Over the last 12 months, 172 properties were listed for sale, representing an annual Stock on Market (SOM) rate of 5.8%.
Q1 Inventory
30 Units
Stabilizing
Q2 Inventory
35 Units
Building
Q3 Peak
44 Units
Max Choice
Q4 Crunch
32 Units
-23.8% Drop
Note on Scarcity: While the Annual Stock on Market was 5.8% (172 sales), the Live Stock on Market (SOM) at any single point never exceeded 1.5%. This means buyers were competing for a tiny fraction (~1.2% average) of the suburb's total 2,975 homes each month. The Market Velocity was extreme, with an absorption rate of ~37% (anything over 20% is a Seller's Market).
| Month (2025) | Active Listings | Live SOM % | MoM Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| January | 39 | 1.31% | — |
| February | 36 | 1.21% | -7.7% ▼ |
| March | 30 | 1.01% | -16.7% ▼ |
| April | 34 | 1.14% | +13.3% ▲ |
| May | 34 | 1.14% | 0.0% — |
| June | 35 | 1.18% | +2.9% ▲ |
| July | 44 | 1.48% | +25.7% ▲ |
| August | 43 | 1.45% | -2.3% ▼ |
| September | 42 | 1.41% | -2.3% ▼ |
| October | 43 | 1.45% | +2.4% ▲ |
| November | 40 | 1.34% | -7.0% ▼ |
| December | 32 | 1.08% | -20.0% ▼ |
Gold Line: Median Price | Blue Area: Inventory Level
The clearest correlation in 2025 is between the July Inventory Peak (44 units) and the December Low (32 units). As supply tightened by 27% in the second half of the year, the median value added nearly $94,000. This proves that removing even a dozen homes from this specific market drives disproportionate price growth.
Real estate markets typically cool in December. Carrara did the opposite. A massive 20% month-on-month drop in listings clashed with sustained buyer demand, generating a 1.5% price spike in the final month of the year—a signal that momentum is building, not fading, into 2026.
At no point in 2025 did active inventory exceed 1.5% of total homes (a 'Balanced' Market is typically 2.5%–3.0%). Combined with a median Days on Market (DOM) of just 21 days, buyers had effectively zero time to deliberate, creating a constant high-pressure environment that favored sellers.
But the defining metric of 2025 was speed. The median Days on Market (DOM) compressed to just 21 days, indicating that the "shelf life" of a home in Carrara is exceptionally short. Carrara is currently in a "High-Leverage" phase for homeowners.
The current environment of low inventory (32 units) and high appreciation (13.9%) suggests that well-presented properties are likely to achieve record-breaking results.
Competition remains fierce. The rapid ascent from $1.14M to $1.30M in just 12 months demonstrates that the cost of "waiting for the market to cool" was approximately $157,000 in lost equity over 2025.